The price of high-speed diesel (HSD) is likely to fall by about Rs11.50 per litre, while petrol may see an increase of Rs1.40 per litre for the next fortnight beginning Aug 16, driven by shifts in the global market and exchange rate movements.

Based on current tax rates, informed sources said the ex-depot price of HSD is estimated to decline by around 4pc, depending on final calculations, while petrol could rise by about 0.5pc.

International petrol prices inched up by 15 cents per barrel over the past fortnight, while diesel rates fell by about $4.5 per barrel. The rupee also appreciated slightly against the dollar.

The current ex-depot petrol price stands at Rs264.61 per litre, following a Rs7.54 per litre cut on August 1. This came after cumulative hikes of Rs20 per litre in the previous four fortnights since May 15. Petrol, used mainly in private cars, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers, directly impacts the budgets of middle- and lower-middle-income groups.

HSD is presently priced at Rs285.83 per litre, after an almost Rs27 per litre surge since May 15, including a minor Rs1.48 per litre cut earlier this month. The fuel powers most of the transport sector — from trucks and buses to trains, tractors, tube-wells and threshers — and has a strong inflationary effect, particularly on the prices of vegetables and other essential goods. Transport fares have already risen in response to earlier price hikes and rarely come down.

Kerosene and light diesel oil (LDO) prices are expected to drop by about Rs6 and Rs7 per litre, respectively.